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From: COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 16:43
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0423
This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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ACUS11 KWNS 151543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151543
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-151815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New
York and southwest New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 151543Z - 151815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop over the next several
hours from central and northern Pennsylvania into southern New York,
continuing into southern New England by late afternoon. Severe wind
and hail are likely across all areas, with a few tornadoes possible
mainly from northeast Pennsylvania into southern New England. As
such, one or more severe and/or tornado watches will be needed
today.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front across northwest PA
into OH, with a pre-frontal trough across central NY into central
PA. A progressive area of early-day thunderstorms has produced
outflow across much of southern NY to near the northern PA border.

Satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring across the warm
sector, with a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north
across PA and NJ, and likely into southern NY later today. In
addition, the aforementioned outflow will continue to modify, while
likely maintaining some degree of enhanced low-level wind shear this
afternoon.

Thunderstorms currently exist along the cold front from western PA
into western NY, and should continue a gradual increase in intensity
as the air mass destabilizes to the east. In addition to these
storms, other storms are expected to form near the surface trough,
and perhaps atop the old outflow boundary. Deep-layer shear will
favor cellular activity away from the cold front, while a mixed
storm mode including bows or embedded supercells are possible along
the front. Strong heating and steep lapse rates aloft will favor
large hail, with an increasing damaging wind by the time storms
organize into a line. Any cellular activity will be capable of large
hail, perhaps very large, along with a few tornadoes where low-level
shear is maximized.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
PBZ...

LAT...LON 41207956 41757860 42017778 42427653 43007519 43357429
43487323 43337286 43047268 42567254 42027277 40857517
40327672 40177764 40197865 40467927 40797963 41207956



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