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COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 05:09
HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 05:09
HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
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FOUS30 KWBC 150409
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
Valid 0409Z Tue May 15 2018 - 12Z Tue May 15 2018
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S MYGF 45 ESE FLL TMB 10 WSW APF 30 WSW FMY 30 SSW SRQ
25 WNW PIE 45 WNW BKV 40 S CTY 30 SE CTY 15 NNW VQQ 30 WNW BQK
20 SSE SVN 60 SE HXD.
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE DTO 45 NNE JCT 45 NNW DRT 10 SW 6R6 65 SSE E38 20 W FST
30 SSW LBB 30 S GAG 30 E SLN 20 NE CSQ 10 E LNR 15 S AMN VLL
10 E CLE 25 ENE ZZV 15 NNE UNI 30 ESE ILN 25 WNW EYE 20 ENE ALN
25 SE VIH 15 NNW FSM 10 NE DTO.
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW IML 25 SSE ITR 15 E LIC 35 SSW IBM 20 N BFF 30 SE CDR
20 NW OGA 25 SSW IML.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW EFT 30 W BIV 20 WNW ARB 10 NE MFD OSU 30 NNW DAY
25 SSW VPZ 15 NE MPZ 20 W IOW 10 WNW EFT.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW EMP MCI 15 NW COU 20 E JLN 15 SSE WLD 15 WNW EMP.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SWW 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 35 SE HHF 35 WNW JWG 25 S JWG
25 SSW SPS 20 E ABI SWW.
...04Z Special Update...
Removed the risk areas from the Mid-Atlantic region where the
heavy rainfall threat has ended.
Pereira
Previous Discussion...
...West TX Plains to Southern Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic Region...
Moisture continues to rotate around a broad shortwave ridge
anchored over the TN Valley. Several shortwaves embedded within
the flow have helped to trigger scattered thunderstorms. There has
been enough moisture, instability and upper level support for
heavy rainfall from nearly each of thunderstorm areas.
...West Central Texas into Western Oklahoma...
Thinking is that the overall trend in rainfall rates will be
downward during the early evening hours as instability diminishes.
The flow aloft will remain difluent and there will continue to be
moisture transported into the region, but the loss of insolation
should be the dominiant factor in dropping the rainfall rates.
...Kansas to Missouri...
Upgraded this area from Marginal Risk to Slight Risk at this
point. Convection remains active in a region where the Most
Unstable Cape is running some 3500 J per kg to in excess of 4500 J
per kg. South to southeast flow from Oklahoma will continue to
feed deep moisture into the ongoing convection. Convection has
been anchored near the intersection of outflow and the old front.
In addition, the northern end of the dry-line extends back towards
southeast Kansas. Conditions should gradually improve later
tonight.
...Southern Great Lakes...
While convection has been trending down over the Southern Great
Lakes, the approach of more shortwave energy from the west and
southwest could trigger more showers and thunderstorms which would
then, potentially, move over an area which has already received
several nights of rainfall. Will maintain the slight risk given
this potential.
Bann
$$
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------------=_1526357395-23415-8821
Content-Type: text/plain
FOUS30 KWBC 150409
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
Valid 0409Z Tue May 15 2018 - 12Z Tue May 15 2018
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S MYGF 45 ESE FLL TMB 10 WSW APF 30 WSW FMY 30 SSW SRQ
25 WNW PIE 45 WNW BKV 40 S CTY 30 SE CTY 15 NNW VQQ 30 WNW BQK
20 SSE SVN 60 SE HXD.
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE DTO 45 NNE JCT 45 NNW DRT 10 SW 6R6 65 SSE E38 20 W FST
30 SSW LBB 30 S GAG 30 E SLN 20 NE CSQ 10 E LNR 15 S AMN VLL
10 E CLE 25 ENE ZZV 15 NNE UNI 30 ESE ILN 25 WNW EYE 20 ENE ALN
25 SE VIH 15 NNW FSM 10 NE DTO.
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW IML 25 SSE ITR 15 E LIC 35 SSW IBM 20 N BFF 30 SE CDR
20 NW OGA 25 SSW IML.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW EFT 30 W BIV 20 WNW ARB 10 NE MFD OSU 30 NNW DAY
25 SSW VPZ 15 NE MPZ 20 W IOW 10 WNW EFT.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW EMP MCI 15 NW COU 20 E JLN 15 SSE WLD 15 WNW EMP.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SWW 45 ESE LBB 35 E PVW 35 SE HHF 35 WNW JWG 25 S JWG
25 SSW SPS 20 E ABI SWW.
...04Z Special Update...
Removed the risk areas from the Mid-Atlantic region where the
heavy rainfall threat has ended.
Pereira
Previous Discussion...
...West TX Plains to Southern Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic Region...
Moisture continues to rotate around a broad shortwave ridge
anchored over the TN Valley. Several shortwaves embedded within
the flow have helped to trigger scattered thunderstorms. There has
been enough moisture, instability and upper level support for
heavy rainfall from nearly each of thunderstorm areas.
...West Central Texas into Western Oklahoma...
Thinking is that the overall trend in rainfall rates will be
downward during the early evening hours as instability diminishes.
The flow aloft will remain difluent and there will continue to be
moisture transported into the region, but the loss of insolation
should be the dominiant factor in dropping the rainfall rates.
...Kansas to Missouri...
Upgraded this area from Marginal Risk to Slight Risk at this
point. Convection remains active in a region where the Most
Unstable Cape is running some 3500 J per kg to in excess of 4500 J
per kg. South to southeast flow from Oklahoma will continue to
feed deep moisture into the ongoing convection. Convection has
been anchored near the intersection of outflow and the old front.
In addition, the northern end of the dry-line extends back towards
southeast Kansas. Conditions should gradually improve later
tonight.
...Southern Great Lakes...
While convection has been trending down over the Southern Great
Lakes, the approach of more shortwave energy from the west and
southwest could trigger more showers and thunderstorms which would
then, potentially, move over an area which has already received
several nights of rainfall. Will maintain the slight risk given
this potential.
Bann
$$
------------=_1526357395-23415-8821
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Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
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