Fidonet Portal
From:
COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Sun, 13.05.18 03:26
MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To: All
Date: Sun, 13.05.18 03:26
MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672
Content-Type: text/plain
AWUS01 KWNH 130226
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-130825-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0137
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 130225Z - 130825Z
SUMMARY...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHORTLY NEAR THE 850 HPA PORTION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHIN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO
1.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z.
DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED ON GOES-16 WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR NORTHWEST WI AND SOUTHWEST MN, WHICH SHOW SOME
DARKENING AS OF LATE. THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WI, WHICH
THE 18Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 0.5" APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
WELL. ANOTHER FIELD OF SHOWERS IS FORMING TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE
IA/IL BORDER, WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MORE IMPORTANT
FOCUS FOR LATER CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.4" IN THIS REGION PER GPS DATA AND THE DAVENPORT IA 00Z
SOUNDING, WHICH WAS MOIST SHOWING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR
11,500 FEET. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 30 KTS PER
THE DAVENPORT IA VAD WIND PROFILE, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
850-400 HPA MEAN WIND. THE AREA IS IN A MU CAPE GRADIENT NEAR THE
850 HPA SLICE OF A FRONTAL ZONE, WITH 1000+ J/KG OF MU CAPE LYING
TO THE SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 30-45 KTS PER SPC
MESOANALYSES.
THE 18Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 0.5" SHARPLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL, NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PATCH OF SHOWERS, WHICH INCREASE FURTHER AND EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OH WITH TIME. VEERING IN THE 850 HPA WIND
WITH TIME IMPLIES THAT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE AS A GROUP OFF TO
THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 KTS. THE PROBABILITIES OF 1"+ AN
HOUR TOTALS INCREASES ABOVE 40% BETWEEN 04-08Z. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL,
WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED BY THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SIX HOURS. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 1.5" ARE SUPPORTED
BY THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE CELL TRAINING IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE, A
RANDOM MESOCYCLONE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE BULK
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND CELL MERGERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 42598797 42038546 41628397 41268365 40538400
40548720 40839126 41389224 42269117 42579006
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672
Content-Type: text/plain
AWUS01 KWNH 130226
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-130825-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0137
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 130225Z - 130825Z
SUMMARY...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHORTLY NEAR THE 850 HPA PORTION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHIN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO
1.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z.
DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED ON GOES-16 WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR NORTHWEST WI AND SOUTHWEST MN, WHICH SHOW SOME
DARKENING AS OF LATE. THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WI, WHICH
THE 18Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 0.5" APPEAR TO BE HANDLING
WELL. ANOTHER FIELD OF SHOWERS IS FORMING TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE
IA/IL BORDER, WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MORE IMPORTANT
FOCUS FOR LATER CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.4" IN THIS REGION PER GPS DATA AND THE DAVENPORT IA 00Z
SOUNDING, WHICH WAS MOIST SHOWING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR
11,500 FEET. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 30 KTS PER
THE DAVENPORT IA VAD WIND PROFILE, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
850-400 HPA MEAN WIND. THE AREA IS IN A MU CAPE GRADIENT NEAR THE
850 HPA SLICE OF A FRONTAL ZONE, WITH 1000+ J/KG OF MU CAPE LYING
TO THE SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 30-45 KTS PER SPC
MESOANALYSES.
THE 18Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 0.5" SHARPLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL, NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PATCH OF SHOWERS, WHICH INCREASE FURTHER AND EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OH WITH TIME. VEERING IN THE 850 HPA WIND
WITH TIME IMPLIES THAT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE AS A GROUP OFF TO
THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 KTS. THE PROBABILITIES OF 1"+ AN
HOUR TOTALS INCREASES ABOVE 40% BETWEEN 04-08Z. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL,
WHICH COULD BE EXCEEDED BY THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SIX HOURS. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 1.5" ARE SUPPORTED
BY THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE CELL TRAINING IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE, A
RANDOM MESOCYCLONE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE BULK
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND CELL MERGERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 42598797 42038546 41628397 41268365 40538400
40548720 40839126 41389224 42269117 42579006
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1526178402-23415-7672--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)
