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From: COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 17:35
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0424
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ACUS11 KWNS 151632
SPC MCD 151631

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151631Z - 151830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail is increasing over the area. A Watch is not anticipated
at this time, but trends in convective intensity will be monitored

DISCUSSION...An ongoing elevated cluster of thunderstorms has shown
signs of becoming better organized in the last hour and is producing
a mesoscale cold pool now evident from El Reno southwest into Greer
county. Deep-layer shear continues to be rather small --only 20-30
kt of effective bulk shear. However, as seen in recent days,
convective clusters have developed MCVs fairly early in their
evolution in this weak-shear, moderately unstable regime. In the
shorter term, a reservoir of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE over southern
and southwest Oklahoma should help maintain the stronger
leading-edge convection. As the MCV develops, new cell generation
will be favored along the northern half of the leading convective
line, generally from northern Grady into Pontotoc counties. While
the convection is expected to remain elevated through about
1700-1730z, strong heating within the residual outflow boundary from
last night's convection, with near-surface dewpoints in the
mid-to-upper 60s, may help transition the convection to being more
surface based after this time. A small enhancement to the shear,
provided by the easterly component to the near-surface winds, should
augment the potential for convective organization over southern
Oklahoma. While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not anticipated at
this time, trends in convective intensity will be monitored closely.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 35289707 35009650 34499623 34059640 34049697 34159776
34409822 34699837 35059822 35339781 35289707

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