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From: COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 17:14
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
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ACUS01 KWNS 151614
SPC AC 151613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z



Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and scattered large hail
is expected across parts of the Northeast States this afternoon into
early evening.

...Northeast States...
Convective evolution will be tied to an MCV and small convective
cluster currently ongoing near the OH/PA border. Robust diabatic
heating is underway ahead of this feature with trailing outflow from
a lead convective cluster currently crossing the Hudson Valley. 12Z
Pittsburgh sounding sampled a favorable environment for
destabilization with an EML yielding steep mid-level lapse rates.
Warm-sector buoyancy of 1000-2000 J/kg will become common by peak
heating. This sounding also sampled the southern periphery of strong
700-500 mb winds. As the OH/PA cluster evolves east and becomes
surface-based, convection will organize into a fast-moving QLCS with
embedded bowing structures given the strong mid-level westerlies
nearly orthogonal to the line. Widespread strong to scattered severe
wind gusts appear likely which may yield a derecho, and thus
damaging wind coverage probabilities have been increased this
outlook. A few cells should form ahead of the developing QLCS, most
likely across parts of southern NY/Hudson Valley vicinity into
western New England. Supercell wind profiles will support a tornado
and large hail risk maximized across this region, with this activity
becoming absorbed within the broader QLCS. The severe threat will
quickly wane near the Atlantic Coast once the QLCS impinges on the
stable marine layer.

...Southern High Plains...
Have introduced a SLGT risk for severe hail and wind across the
region. Two areas of focus for convective development are
anticipated. One near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection over
the TX South Plains and the other in the low-level upslope flow
regime over the Raton Mesa. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies
will yield 30-40 kt effective shear for late afternoon to early
evening supercells with large hail and isolated downburst winds the
primary initial threat. Most CAMs suggest an MCS will emanate out of
the Raton Mesa activity this evening and spread east-southeast
across the Panhandles into western OK tonight, supported by a
moderate LLJ over west TX. Abundant convective overturning over the
lower plains yesterday into this morning should mitigate the overall
threat with eastern extent overnight.

A couple multicell clusters may develop east of an MCV over IL with
decent diabatic heating expected across parts of IN/OH. The
combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE appears modest, so will
maintain MRGL risk probabilities for wind and hail.

..Grams/Coniglio.. 05/15/2018


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