Date: Tue, 15.05.18 09:57
DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 150857
SPC AC 150856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
Models indicate that blocking may maintain split belts of westerlies
emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific through this period. It is
possible that the blocking may redevelop inland of the Pacific coast
toward early next week, but guidance indicates more uncertainty
concerning developments across the eastern Pacific into western
North America late in the period.
There does appear more certainty that the primary short wave
impulse, within initial troughing in the southern branch, will
emerge from the Southwest late this week, accompanied by a modest
(30-40 kt) belt of flow across the southern Rockies into the Plains.
This is forecast to support the evolution of at least a modest
surface cyclone across the central High Plains by late Friday
afternoon and evening, when it appears that severe weather potential
may maximize for this period. Lingering moisture probably will be
sufficient to support at least moderately large CAPE in the presence
of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates. This is expected to
become focused along a dryline across parts of western/central
Kansas, and within northerly/easterly low-level flow across southern
Nebraska into the northern slope of the Palmer Divide and Colorado
Front Range. This environment probably will become conducive to
organized severe storm development, including supercells.
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