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To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 03:37
MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 03:37
MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1526351842-23415-8753
Content-Type: text/plain
AWUS01 KWNH 150237
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150705-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0148
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1036 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IL AND NEAR THE IN/OH/MI BORDER
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 150235Z - 150705Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER AND UPWIND OF AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN REPEATED INCURSIONS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOURLY TOTALS TO 1.75" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 07Z.
DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI AND AN MCV ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAVE LED TO THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT
OF A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL WITH A REMAINING COMPLEX
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST IN. OTHER SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE FORMING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WITHIN
CONVERGENT FLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH OF ITS FRONTAL INTERSECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THUMB OF MI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.3-1.6" LIE ACROSS THIS AREA. MU CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG
EXIST HERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ALONG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS HELPING TO ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION IN IL INTO A BAND.
CONSIDERING RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS, THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE APPEARS UNDERDONE ON AMOUNTS, ONLY ADVERTISING TOTALS
MAXIMIZING IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN THE AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD YIELD HOURLY TOTALS TO 1.75" WHERE
CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS. WITH CELL MOTION REMAINING
30-40 KTS, LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, A LONG TRAINING BAND MIGHT BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. NEVERTHELESS, SOILS HAVE BEEN PARTIALLY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAIN. BELIEVE LOCAL MAXIMA UP TO
3" ARE POSSIBLE HERE.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 42858479 42578266 41438260 41138295 40878365
40908509 41018795 40839033 41019190 41619069
42278911 42758728
------------=_1526351842-23415-8753
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------------=_1526351842-23415-8753--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)
------------=_1526351842-23415-8753
Content-Type: text/plain
AWUS01 KWNH 150237
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150705-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0148
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1036 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IL AND NEAR THE IN/OH/MI BORDER
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 150235Z - 150705Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER AND UPWIND OF AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN REPEATED INCURSIONS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOURLY TOTALS TO 1.75" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 07Z.
DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI AND AN MCV ACROSS CENTRAL IL HAVE LED TO THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT
OF A CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL WITH A REMAINING COMPLEX
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST IN. OTHER SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE FORMING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WITHIN
CONVERGENT FLOW AT 850 HPA SOUTH OF ITS FRONTAL INTERSECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THUMB OF MI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.3-1.6" LIE ACROSS THIS AREA. MU CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG
EXIST HERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ALONG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS HELPING TO ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION IN IL INTO A BAND.
CONSIDERING RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS, THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE APPEARS UNDERDONE ON AMOUNTS, ONLY ADVERTISING TOTALS
MAXIMIZING IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
UPWARD TREND IN THE AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD YIELD HOURLY TOTALS TO 1.75" WHERE
CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAINING OCCURS. WITH CELL MOTION REMAINING
30-40 KTS, LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, A LONG TRAINING BAND MIGHT BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. NEVERTHELESS, SOILS HAVE BEEN PARTIALLY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAIN. BELIEVE LOCAL MAXIMA UP TO
3" ARE POSSIBLE HERE.
ROTH
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...
ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 42858479 42578266 41438260 41138295 40878365
40908509 41018795 40839033 41019190 41619069
42278911 42758728
------------=_1526351842-23415-8753
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1526351842-23415-8753--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)
