Date: Tue, 15.05.18 02:33
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0421
ACUS11 KWNS 150133
SPC MCD 150132
Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Areas affected...Western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150132Z - 150300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The long-lived intense thunderstorm cluster across western
KS will continue to pose a localized significant severe risk in the
short term, though the duration of the threat is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, an intense supercell cluster was moving
southeast across west-central KS. The cluster is likely slightly
elevated, given its presentation on visible satellite imagery and
location north of a surface boundary, but moderate instability and
effective shear of 40-50 kt has allowed the cluster to become well
organized. While effective shear will remain favorable downstream,
the thermodynamic environment is expected to become increasingly
hostile, as SB CINH increases. This cluster will likely become
increasingly elevated with time, and with the low-level jet expected
to be focused east of this area, a gradual decreasing trend is
expected later this evening.
Given the very localized nature and expected limited duration of the
threat, no watch issuance is currently anticipated unless additional
upscale growth occurs. However, until a definitive weakening trend
commences, wind-driven large hail capable of significant damage will
continue to be a threat with this system.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38680109 38680053 38389944 37999942 37759966 37830015
37980072 38130114 38290143 38410159 38680109
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