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From: COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Tue, 15.05.18 02:05
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0420
This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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ACUS11 KWNS 150105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150105
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Western OK...Northwest TX...Far South-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89...91...

Valid 150105Z - 150230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 89, 91
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across WW
91, but a decreasing trend is expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Potentially severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of northwest OK, and also far southwest OK at 01Z. However,
the cluster that earlier produced 65+ kt wind gusts around Childress
into far southwest OK has weakened rapidly over the past 30 minutes,
with outflow surging well ahead of the trailing convection. While
strong instability was noted on the 00Z OUN sounding, weak midlevel
flow and increasing SB CINH with time this evening should continue
to result in a weakening trend with ongoing convection, though the
strongest updrafts will remain capable of large hail and locally
damaging wind in the short term. Downstream watch issuance or
extension into central OK does not seem warranted at this time,
though the decaying convective system may continue to produce
locally gusty winds into mid/late evening.

Further north, a left-moving supercell is approaching south-central
KS at 01Z. A narrow corridor of strong instability (between a cold
front to the north and outflow to the southeast) is in place
downstream of this cell, and it will likely continue to pose a
threat of very large hail as it moves northeast into south-central
KS.

..Dean.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33640126 35749984 36899906 37289852 37319784 35919782
34999845 34239888 33789921 33599953 33590050 33580074
33640126



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