Date: Sun, 13.05.18 02:20
HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
FOUS30 KWBC 130120
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
920 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018
Valid 01Z Sun May 13 2018 - 12Z Sun May 13 2018
MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE YNG IDI MDT 10 SE PHL 20 SSE ACY 70 ESE OXB 30 SSE OXB
20 ESE NHK 20 S NAK GAI FDK 15 SSE OKV 20 ESE W99 30 W CKB LCK
30 NW DAY 15 NW MIE 20 WNW LAF 20 SSE PNT 15 S GBG 15 SSE FFL
20 SW OTM 20 SW DSM 15 NW TNU 15 W VTI 25 NW DBQ 20 NNW EFT
15 WSW UES 15 NNW LWA ADG 10 SSW CLE 20 SSE YNG.
...Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes east into the
A line of intense convection is moving southeast across the
Delmarva region. This activity is becoming more progressive with
time, however a localized flash flood threat will continue through
the evening hours. Further upstream, activity has been pretty weak
thus far. Still some chance storms form ahead of the well defined
shortwave moving across OH as of 01z. This activity is not
expected to become all that intense if it does form, and should be
progressive. However, if it moves across areas of southwest PA and
northern WV that received heavy rainfall this evening...the
additional rainfall could cause some localized flooding concerns.
Across IA/IL/IN, still a signal that convection will increase in
intensity overnight. Not seeing much in the way of dynamical
support for this activity, thus will mainly be driven by continued
850 mb moisture transport into the region of elevated instability
north of the surface front. None of the 12z HREF members are
really a good match to current radar observations. Recent runs of
the HRRR are probably closest, and these runs are less aggressive
with organizing this convection, and actually focus the higher
amounts across northern IN/OH where FFG is higher. Thus while
convection should generally see an uptick across portions of
IA/IL/IN over the next few hours, not confident the activity will
become organized enough to pose a concentrated flash flood risk.
For this reason, opted to go with just a Marginal risk over this
area. In fact will extend a broad Marginal risk across the entire
corridor of 850 mb moisture convergence. Think a localized flash
flood risk exists across this entire swath, but the threat of an
organized flash flood risk developing seems lower...will however
continue to monitor.
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