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From: COD Weather Processor (1:2320/105)
To: All
Date: Sat, 12.05.18 22:01
MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0394
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ACUS11 KWNS 122101
SPC MCD 122100

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into west TX and
far western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122100Z - 122330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail
will be possible through this evening. Watch issuance is not

DISCUSSION...Weak convergence along a surface dryline and subtle
large-scale lift associated with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
trough ejecting northeastward over the southern High Plains this
afternoon should be sufficient to initiate at least isolated
convection along the dryline over the next couple of hours. Recent
visible satellite imagery shows increased mid-level cloudiness
across west TX into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures east of the
dryline reaching into the mid to upper 90s and greater low-level
moisture in the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and far western OK, MLCAPE
has increased into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Mid-level flow is
modestly stronger across the TX/OK Panhandles, and weakens quickly
with southward extent into west TX. In addition, upper-level winds
will remain weak across this area. Still, a deeply mixed boundary
layer with very steep (8-9 degree C/km) low and mid-level lapse
rates should enhance convective downdrafts. Isolated strong to
severe winds appear to be the main threat, although some hail may
occur with the strongest thunderstorms. Overall, thunderstorm
coverage will likely remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/12/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 34810144 35900123 36320110 36830059 36979997 36879953
35469964 33080032 32510084 32480148 33070161 34810144

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